Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 38.251401 41.668104 45.420523 49.879804 55.077832 61.000309 68.339133
2025-02-16 32.897650 37.383421 42.668239 49.470247 58.174201 69.211705 84.754792
2025-02-23 29.674179 34.629404 40.737248 49.033824 60.380680 75.991301 100.423780
2025-03-02 27.155859 32.296330 38.843072 48.101403 61.436451 81.047175 114.715396
2025-03-09 25.301321 30.558077 37.435716 47.499079 62.664301 86.364175 130.872300
2025-03-16 23.403072 28.570853 35.461543 45.793858 61.892619 88.247921 141.460899
2025-03-23 22.817277 28.270135 35.734800 47.322517 66.275263 99.560857 175.080600
2025-03-30 21.760283 27.230127 34.853245 46.975009 67.499670 105.476310 200.025467
2025-04-06 20.748622 26.178838 33.860439 46.326346 68.074905 110.234700 224.859980
2025-04-13 19.588382 24.846317 32.356358 44.707345 66.688896 110.677355 238.079687
2025-04-20 19.325526 24.780316 32.727998 46.167663 71.124333 124.692589 304.848154
2025-04-27 19.009628 24.611501 32.920251 47.332006 75.180769 139.211441 392.558395
2025-05-04 18.462932 24.099439 32.587421 47.637340 77.764586 151.587801 497.084258
2025-05-11 17.820001 23.412704 31.938396 47.329173 79.060142 161.227669 613.634481
2025-05-18 17.212874 22.746818 31.275699 46.924361 80.074664 170.561064 763.046400
2025-05-25 16.563934 21.984640 30.407957 46.054624 79.901541 176.240701 911.774904
2025-06-01 16.022053 21.363103 29.735125 45.492396 80.359190 184.339890 1146.084969
2025-06-08 15.327097 20.475060 28.573432 43.899134 78.134752 182.296030 1236.852737
2025-06-15 15.220450 20.503476 28.948311 45.327534 83.544203 211.418707 2398.014894
2025-06-22 14.817609 20.043957 28.465189 45.002981 84.467065 223.499766 3713.126521
2025-06-29 14.392908 19.533011 27.867469 44.396909 84.559627 232.222433 5825.221248
2025-07-06 13.843863 18.804358 26.861215 42.882748 82.003399 227.548097 6547.386544
2025-07-13 13.784346 18.862284 27.228781 44.248595 87.616270 267.106497 107889.657212